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IMF Upgrades China's Growth Forecasts – Reactions

Amanda Cheesley

23 December 2023

Despite concerns about China’s slowing economy, and its real estate sector in particular, the  (IMF) upgraded China’s growth forecasts this week, predicting that it will grow 5.4 per cent this year.

The revision came after China approved a $137 billion sovereign bond issue and allowed local governments to frontload part of their 2024 bond quotas, in order to support the economy. The country has also introduced various measures to support the property market, although more remains to be done.

The IMF said that continued weakness in the property sector and subdued external demand could restrict gross domestic product growth to 4.6 per cent in 2024.

“A GDP forecast of 5.4 per cent for the year compared to the previous IMF forecast of 5 per cent is a marginal positive and gives further confidence that China’s muted post-Covid recovery will continue. It does little to change our overall exposure, however. We also agree with the issues highlighted by the IMF concerning property developers and local government debt, but we are not directly exposed to those areas within the Somerset Asia & Emerging Market Dividend Growth Strategies," Mark Williams, co-manager of the Emerging Markets Dividend Growth Strategy and Asia Income Strategy at an investment firm based in Hong Kong, who thinks that there are hidden gems to be found in the country. See more here.

Chetan Sehgal, lead portfolio manager of Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust (TEMIT) and senior managing director at US-based investment manager , also believes that there are some good firms to be found there. See more here.